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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. In practice, it creates an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking upset.

However the current race is distinctly different. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime also-rans improving collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this is not a normal campaign!

The area where his case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a swift turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still