Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone close by, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
