A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
